How the 2025 Housing Market is Shaping Up in Ontario — Prices, Supply & Demand
How the 2025 Housing Market is Shaping Up in Ontario — Prices, Supply & Demand
Hamed Rahimi
Updated: August 2025
Ontario’s housing market in 2025 is proving to be a story of resilience and transition. After a turbulent few years of rate hikes, pandemic-era price surges, and supply shortages, the province’s market is now entering a new phase — one where stability, not volatility, is starting to take hold.
In this comprehensive report, we’ll break down:
Current home price trends by region
Supply and inventory levels
Buyer demand patterns
Key economic factors affecting Ontario real estate
What to expect for the rest of 2025 and beyond
1. Ontario Home Prices — August 2025 Snapshot
According to data from the Ontario Real Estate Association (OREA) and local MLS boards:
Region | Avg. Price (Aug 2025) | YoY Change |
|---|---|---|
Greater Toronto Area (GTA) | $1,097,000 | +3.1% |
Ottawa | $712,000 | +2.4% |
Hamilton-Burlington | $862,500 | +2.8% |
London-St.Thomas | $643,000 | +1.9% |
Kitchen-Waterloo | $755,000 | +3.5% |
Windsor-Essex | $571,000 | +1.2% |
Northern Ontario | $417,000 | +0.8% |
Key takeaway: Prices have stabilized or grown modestly in most urban and suburban areas despite high borrowing costs, suggesting a floor has formed in many markets.
2. Supply & Inventory Levels
Active Listings
August 2025 inventory is 17% higher than the same time in 2024.
More sellers are returning to the market as conditions improve.
Months of Inventory (MOI)
Province-wide MOI: 2.6 months (balanced market range).
GTA: 2.1 months (leaning toward seller’s market).
Rural Ontario: 3.4 months (more balanced).
💡 Why this matters: Balanced MOI levels tend to stabilize prices and give both buyers and sellers room to negotiate.
3. Buyer Demand Patterns in 2025
First-time buyers: Coming back into the market thanks to FHSA adoption and softer fixed rates.
Move-up buyers: Cautiously active, especially in suburbs where price gaps between detached and townhomes have narrowed.
Investors: Focused on multi-family properties and high-demand rental zones like Hamilton, Kitchener, and Ottawa.
4. Economic Factors Impacting Ontario Housing
A. Mortgage Rates
Average 5-year fixed now below 5% for prime borrowers.
Rate stability is encouraging buyer confidence.
B. Immigration & Population Growth
Ontario welcomed ~450,000 new residents in the past 12 months.
Most are settling in the GTA, Kitchener-Waterloo, and Ottawa.
C. Employment Trends
Unemployment steady at 5.7% in Ontario.
Wage growth of ~3% annually helping offset affordability pressures.
5. Regional Highlights — August 2025
Greater Toronto Area (GTA)
Sales activity up 8% year-over-year.
Detached homes in outer GTA (Oshawa, Milton, Orangeville) seeing the biggest sales gains.
Ottawa
Government job stability supports demand.
Townhouse segment remains hottest due to affordability.
Hamilton-Burlington
Influx of buyers from Toronto seeking more space.
Investor demand for student rentals near McMaster University remains strong.
London-St. Thomas
Popular with buyers relocating from the GTA for affordability.
New home construction increasing in suburban areas.
Northern Ontario
Market stable with modest gains; mining sector job growth supports demand.
6. Predictions for the Rest of 2025
Base Case
Prices hold steady or rise 2–4% in most markets.
Inventory stays within balanced range.
Upside
If Bank of Canada cuts rates in Q4 2025, demand could surge, pushing prices up 5–7% in hot markets.
Downside
If inflation spikes and rate cuts are delayed, sales may slow slightly, but prices likely won’t drop significantly given supply constraints.
7. Advice for Buyers & Sellers Right Now
For Buyers:
Get pre-approved now to lock in today’s rates before possible Q4 cuts trigger bidding wars.
Consider suburban and secondary markets for better affordability.
For Sellers:
Well-priced, move-in-ready homes are still selling quickly.
If possible, list before any major rate cuts — competitive conditions could favour buyers more later.
8. Long-Term Outlook for Ontario Housing
Ontario’s housing market fundamentals remain strong:
Ongoing immigration will continue driving demand.
Supply constraints will persist despite increased construction efforts.
Mortgage rates are expected to trend lower into 2026, supporting gradual price growth.
Bottom Line — August 2025
Ontario’s housing market is steady and resilient heading into the final quarter of 2025.
With balanced supply and demand, stable rates, and consistent population growth, buyers and sellers can expect predictable, sustainable market conditions — a welcome change after years of volatility.
Want to know your market’s exact numbers?
I track Ontario housing stats weekly — get a free local market update delivered to your inbox.
Updated: August 2025
Ontario’s housing market in 2025 is proving to be a story of resilience and transition. After a turbulent few years of rate hikes, pandemic-era price surges, and supply shortages, the province’s market is now entering a new phase — one where stability, not volatility, is starting to take hold.
In this comprehensive report, we’ll break down:
Current home price trends by region
Supply and inventory levels
Buyer demand patterns
Key economic factors affecting Ontario real estate
What to expect for the rest of 2025 and beyond
1. Ontario Home Prices — August 2025 Snapshot
According to data from the Ontario Real Estate Association (OREA) and local MLS boards:
Region | Avg. Price (Aug 2025) | YoY Change |
|---|---|---|
Greater Toronto Area (GTA) | $1,097,000 | +3.1% |
Ottawa | $712,000 | +2.4% |
Hamilton-Burlington | $862,500 | +2.8% |
London-St.Thomas | $643,000 | +1.9% |
Kitchen-Waterloo | $755,000 | +3.5% |
Windsor-Essex | $571,000 | +1.2% |
Northern Ontario | $417,000 | +0.8% |
Key takeaway: Prices have stabilized or grown modestly in most urban and suburban areas despite high borrowing costs, suggesting a floor has formed in many markets.
2. Supply & Inventory Levels
Active Listings
August 2025 inventory is 17% higher than the same time in 2024.
More sellers are returning to the market as conditions improve.
Months of Inventory (MOI)
Province-wide MOI: 2.6 months (balanced market range).
GTA: 2.1 months (leaning toward seller’s market).
Rural Ontario: 3.4 months (more balanced).
💡 Why this matters: Balanced MOI levels tend to stabilize prices and give both buyers and sellers room to negotiate.
3. Buyer Demand Patterns in 2025
First-time buyers: Coming back into the market thanks to FHSA adoption and softer fixed rates.
Move-up buyers: Cautiously active, especially in suburbs where price gaps between detached and townhomes have narrowed.
Investors: Focused on multi-family properties and high-demand rental zones like Hamilton, Kitchener, and Ottawa.
4. Economic Factors Impacting Ontario Housing
A. Mortgage Rates
Average 5-year fixed now below 5% for prime borrowers.
Rate stability is encouraging buyer confidence.
B. Immigration & Population Growth
Ontario welcomed ~450,000 new residents in the past 12 months.
Most are settling in the GTA, Kitchener-Waterloo, and Ottawa.
C. Employment Trends
Unemployment steady at 5.7% in Ontario.
Wage growth of ~3% annually helping offset affordability pressures.
5. Regional Highlights — August 2025
Greater Toronto Area (GTA)
Sales activity up 8% year-over-year.
Detached homes in outer GTA (Oshawa, Milton, Orangeville) seeing the biggest sales gains.
Ottawa
Government job stability supports demand.
Townhouse segment remains hottest due to affordability.
Hamilton-Burlington
Influx of buyers from Toronto seeking more space.
Investor demand for student rentals near McMaster University remains strong.
London-St. Thomas
Popular with buyers relocating from the GTA for affordability.
New home construction increasing in suburban areas.
Northern Ontario
Market stable with modest gains; mining sector job growth supports demand.
6. Predictions for the Rest of 2025
Base Case
Prices hold steady or rise 2–4% in most markets.
Inventory stays within balanced range.
Upside
If Bank of Canada cuts rates in Q4 2025, demand could surge, pushing prices up 5–7% in hot markets.
Downside
If inflation spikes and rate cuts are delayed, sales may slow slightly, but prices likely won’t drop significantly given supply constraints.
7. Advice for Buyers & Sellers Right Now
For Buyers:
Get pre-approved now to lock in today’s rates before possible Q4 cuts trigger bidding wars.
Consider suburban and secondary markets for better affordability.
For Sellers:
Well-priced, move-in-ready homes are still selling quickly.
If possible, list before any major rate cuts — competitive conditions could favour buyers more later.
8. Long-Term Outlook for Ontario Housing
Ontario’s housing market fundamentals remain strong:
Ongoing immigration will continue driving demand.
Supply constraints will persist despite increased construction efforts.
Mortgage rates are expected to trend lower into 2026, supporting gradual price growth.
Bottom Line — August 2025
Ontario’s housing market is steady and resilient heading into the final quarter of 2025.
With balanced supply and demand, stable rates, and consistent population growth, buyers and sellers can expect predictable, sustainable market conditions — a welcome change after years of volatility.
Want to know your market’s exact numbers?
I track Ontario housing stats weekly — get a free local market update delivered to your inbox.
Updated: August 2025
Ontario’s housing market in 2025 is proving to be a story of resilience and transition. After a turbulent few years of rate hikes, pandemic-era price surges, and supply shortages, the province’s market is now entering a new phase — one where stability, not volatility, is starting to take hold.
In this comprehensive report, we’ll break down:
Current home price trends by region
Supply and inventory levels
Buyer demand patterns
Key economic factors affecting Ontario real estate
What to expect for the rest of 2025 and beyond
1. Ontario Home Prices — August 2025 Snapshot
According to data from the Ontario Real Estate Association (OREA) and local MLS boards:
Region | Avg. Price (Aug 2025) | YoY Change |
|---|---|---|
Greater Toronto Area (GTA) | $1,097,000 | +3.1% |
Ottawa | $712,000 | +2.4% |
Hamilton-Burlington | $862,500 | +2.8% |
London-St.Thomas | $643,000 | +1.9% |
Kitchen-Waterloo | $755,000 | +3.5% |
Windsor-Essex | $571,000 | +1.2% |
Northern Ontario | $417,000 | +0.8% |
Key takeaway: Prices have stabilized or grown modestly in most urban and suburban areas despite high borrowing costs, suggesting a floor has formed in many markets.
2. Supply & Inventory Levels
Active Listings
August 2025 inventory is 17% higher than the same time in 2024.
More sellers are returning to the market as conditions improve.
Months of Inventory (MOI)
Province-wide MOI: 2.6 months (balanced market range).
GTA: 2.1 months (leaning toward seller’s market).
Rural Ontario: 3.4 months (more balanced).
💡 Why this matters: Balanced MOI levels tend to stabilize prices and give both buyers and sellers room to negotiate.
3. Buyer Demand Patterns in 2025
First-time buyers: Coming back into the market thanks to FHSA adoption and softer fixed rates.
Move-up buyers: Cautiously active, especially in suburbs where price gaps between detached and townhomes have narrowed.
Investors: Focused on multi-family properties and high-demand rental zones like Hamilton, Kitchener, and Ottawa.
4. Economic Factors Impacting Ontario Housing
A. Mortgage Rates
Average 5-year fixed now below 5% for prime borrowers.
Rate stability is encouraging buyer confidence.
B. Immigration & Population Growth
Ontario welcomed ~450,000 new residents in the past 12 months.
Most are settling in the GTA, Kitchener-Waterloo, and Ottawa.
C. Employment Trends
Unemployment steady at 5.7% in Ontario.
Wage growth of ~3% annually helping offset affordability pressures.
5. Regional Highlights — August 2025
Greater Toronto Area (GTA)
Sales activity up 8% year-over-year.
Detached homes in outer GTA (Oshawa, Milton, Orangeville) seeing the biggest sales gains.
Ottawa
Government job stability supports demand.
Townhouse segment remains hottest due to affordability.
Hamilton-Burlington
Influx of buyers from Toronto seeking more space.
Investor demand for student rentals near McMaster University remains strong.
London-St. Thomas
Popular with buyers relocating from the GTA for affordability.
New home construction increasing in suburban areas.
Northern Ontario
Market stable with modest gains; mining sector job growth supports demand.
6. Predictions for the Rest of 2025
Base Case
Prices hold steady or rise 2–4% in most markets.
Inventory stays within balanced range.
Upside
If Bank of Canada cuts rates in Q4 2025, demand could surge, pushing prices up 5–7% in hot markets.
Downside
If inflation spikes and rate cuts are delayed, sales may slow slightly, but prices likely won’t drop significantly given supply constraints.
7. Advice for Buyers & Sellers Right Now
For Buyers:
Get pre-approved now to lock in today’s rates before possible Q4 cuts trigger bidding wars.
Consider suburban and secondary markets for better affordability.
For Sellers:
Well-priced, move-in-ready homes are still selling quickly.
If possible, list before any major rate cuts — competitive conditions could favour buyers more later.
8. Long-Term Outlook for Ontario Housing
Ontario’s housing market fundamentals remain strong:
Ongoing immigration will continue driving demand.
Supply constraints will persist despite increased construction efforts.
Mortgage rates are expected to trend lower into 2026, supporting gradual price growth.
Bottom Line — August 2025
Ontario’s housing market is steady and resilient heading into the final quarter of 2025.
With balanced supply and demand, stable rates, and consistent population growth, buyers and sellers can expect predictable, sustainable market conditions — a welcome change after years of volatility.
Want to know your market’s exact numbers?
I track Ontario housing stats weekly — get a free local market update delivered to your inbox.
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